1/26/2004

David Corn, in Nashua, questions the local Democratic Chairman's assertion that "We're in a war of ideas!" There is no war of ideas occurring in the New Hampshire primary. There is barely a skirmish...This is a campaign of impressions and identities. The goal: find the right knight to vanquish the evil king. In on-the-stump performance, Dean and Edwards have been far better campaigners than Kerry and Clark. But that might not be enough for them to trip up Kerry the frontrunner. Of the major contenders, Edwards has the best delivery and the best thematic approach. With passion and sincerity, he critiques the existence of "two Americas"...And he has the healthiest glow of all the candidates--he practically shines--and the best gestures, which come from his days as a trial lawyer. This pitch neatly weaves in his own personal up-from-the-working-class history...Edwards has put together an attractive package. Is it flying off the shelf? The election will tell. His events appear to have the most uncommitted voters in attendance... Dean also has improved his offering to the voters. He has tried to counter the Scream Heard Around the World with one-liners ("I am so excited to be here, I could just scream"). And he highlights his command of policy....He noted that Barbara Ehrenreich's book, Nickel and Dimed, which chronicles the travails of low-income workers, ought to be "required reading" for every presidential candidate. At this meeting, Dean came across as a smart, sure-footed, if a bit wonkish, liberal, but one who turned policy into programs in Vermont. And he continues to excite his core voters with his talk of reviving idealism and using people power to "take back the country" from special interests...At Dean rallies and events, his fans appear to be unbowed, undaunted, and still revved up--far more so than the voters who attend campaign events for other candidates...He seems to be the candidate about whom Democratic voters have the strongest feelings--for or against. That may limit his ability to attract voters who are not already on his side. Kerry may well be benefiting from an opposite dynamic. He does not excite as Dean does (or seduce as effectively as Edwards). But he presents a more conventional--and perhaps--more comfortable choice for New Hampshire Democrats...Maybe it is due to these reasons that Kerry has wider--though not deeper--support than Dean and Edwards. It is not because of his performance on the campaign trail. When it comes to being a candidate, Kerry cannot do better than a B-plus. It's as if there is a Kerry wall. He says all the right things for a Democrat--but without any magic or music...He may well be a thoughtful, intelligent person--and a war hero/jock...But he still needs a mojo transplant...He is not a bold pick; he is a safe pick. Is it possible that voters craving an anti-Bush champion are responding to the idea of John Kerry more than the actual John Kerry? If so, how far can this relationship go? Clark, like Kerry, has had a tough time making good on his potential. He essentially had New Hampshire to himself for a week--who counts Senator Joseph Lieberman?--and there are no signs he was able to exploit that opportunity. He entered the race late in September and--no surprise--he has been performing like a candidate who only has four months of experience. At that gathering of leading state Democrats, Clark delivered a speech that failed to rouse the audience. Too much of it was devoted to explaining why he now is a Democrat...He can speak effectively on matters of national security, but he has not yet figured out a larger sales pitch. ...One idea is paramount now: find the guy who can dethrone Bush. Kerry may end up the choice in New Hampshire because his perceived liabilities are less tangible--or less worrisome--than those of Dean and Edwards. Politics, after all, is a relativist endeavor. And fortunately for Kerry, in this race the campaign performances of the candidates might be a small factor. On Tuesday, the contest will likely turn not on what voters feel about the candidates but on what they think they should feel about them.

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