1/27/2004

James Carville: One of the key numbers we want to look for tonight is 35 [percent]. The further [John] Kerry falls below 35 [percent], I think the worse news it is for him. The more he rises above 35 [percent], the better the news is for him. t's important for Edwards not to lose contact; he can run third, but he can't loose contact with Dean. He has to stay close enough...Dean's got to come close. If he takes another drubbing here, it's not going to be good for him at all because at some point somebody else [besides Kerry] has got to start winning some primaries. We tend to focus on what's happened behind the front-runner, and that's fine, but come next Tuesday we are going to start counting delegates, and somebody other than Kerry's got to win some primaries, and the road to winning primaries next Tuesday is to do well in New Hampshire tonight. So this is a big event. If John Kerry doesn't win big, it gives new life into Howard Dean's campaign, which didn't have a whole lot of life on Wednesday. I think of the big five, two will be gone tomorrow. Whether they drop out -- whether you drop out or not doesn't matter -- but if two people finish far behind here, it's going to be pretty hard for them to raise money; it's going to be hard for their supporters to stay with them. And there's a great sense among everyday rank-and-file Democrats, "Hey, if somebody does really well here, let's get, all get behind them and make this person nominee."

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