THE MCCAIN STRATEGY

A couple weeks ago, the Hotline started trumpeting polling showing that 5% more Americans support a surge in Iraq when it's described as the "McCain strategy" than as the "Bush strategy." Like most political polls, it shows that people think differently than they think that they think - that is, few people like to think that they would come down differently on otherwise identically described plans based on who they were named after. But as a demonstration of the power of the McCain brand, I'd have to say it's underwhelming. John McCain, bearer of the faith of our fathers, guide to a braver life, darling of ostensibly liberal journalists and avowedly partisan Democrats, can only lift the surge from 32% to 37%? Five percent? And that's only three percent over the support it garners with nobody's name stamped on it. Clearly McCain's plan to defend his hawkish stance on the grounds that Bush failed by being insufficiently hawkish is taking a beating as Bush takes a page from his book. Now McCain is left hoping that voters give him points for the courage of his convictions, that they believe that McCain would have done the surge way better than Bush, or that the surge will have Iraqis belatedly throwing rose petals at the feet of American soldiers. Of those possibilities, none is super promising. The first is maybe the most interesting, because it provides an interesting test case on the question of how voters weigh what your issue positions say about you versus how much they agree with yours. Paul Waldman makes a strong case that McCain's advocacy of campaign finance reform shows that, in Mark Schmitt's words, "It's not what you say about the issues - it's what the issues say about you" - that is, that McCain's advocacy of reform is a winner not because people care about the issue one way or the other but because it casts him as a man of integrity. It's an important point that many Democrats with a congenital need to split the difference on issues of the day would do well to remember. On the other hand, the difference between campaign finance reform and escalation in Iraq is that most Americans aren't hell-bent against campaign finance reform - that just don't care that much about it. As for what this means about John McCain's general election chances, I still think he's a formidable opponent, certainly more so than Mitt Romney or Sam Brownback. But as a raft of polls the past few days have confirmed, he can be beaten. Which is all the more reason for progressives to seek out a candidate who would do a great job governing the country.