The Bush Campaign tries to beat the expectations game: In an e-mail sent Monday, Matthew Dowd, Bush's chief strategist, predicted that the race will "swing wildly" in Kerry's favor within a month. Dowd's memo included a chart showing that the challenger typically has gained a 15-point bounce in polls when the running mate is announced and the spotlight of the convention shines on the nominee. These two developments "can have a dramatic (if often short-lived) effect on the head-to-head poll numbers," Dowd wrote. "In fact, historical analysis suggests John Kerry should have a lead of more than 15 points coming out of his convention." Dowd did not say in his memo what factors might help Bush close the gap, or when that might happen. How's this for expectations? George Bush's polling numbers for the past few months, based on comparison even to those incumbents who lost the Presidency badly, shouldn't come close to as low as...George Bush's polling numbers for the past few months. Or is it too late to float that expectation?